VALIDATE — PMF Signals
40%+
Would Be Upset
If product disappeared
3+
Organic Reviews
Without asking
25%+
Repeat Rate
Customers buy again
>1.5x
ROAS on First Spend
Without optimization
Sean Ellis Test
The single most reliable PMF signal
If 40%+ of your customers say they'd be very disappointed without your product, you have PMF
| Signal | How to Measure | PMF Threshold | Your Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strangers Paid You | Orders from people who don't know you | 10+ paid orders from ads/organic (not friends) | Critical |
| ROAS > 1.5x | Revenue ÷ ad spend on very first campaign | For every ₹1 spent, you earn ₹1.50+ back | Critical |
| ROAS > Breakeven | After accounting for COGS, shipping, RTO | Net profit per order > ₹100 | Important |
| Organic Traffic Growing | Google Analytics direct/referral traffic | 15%+ of traffic from non-paid sources within 60 days | Good Signal |
| Signal | How to Measure | PMF Threshold | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Ellis Test | Survey: "How would you feel if you could no longer use this product?" | 40%+ say "Very disappointed" | Critical |
| Organic Re-engagement | Customers messaging you about their experience or asking when you'll restock | 2+ customers reach out within 30 days | Critical |
| Unprompted Reviews | Reviews you didn't ask for or incentivize | 3+ organic reviews in first 30 days | Strong Signal |
| Word of Mouth | Customers telling friends, sharing on social | 2+ referrals from existing customers | Strong Signal |
| Low Return Rate | RTO + returns as % of delivered orders | < 20% combined return + RTO rate | Important |
| Signal | How to Measure | PMF Threshold | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Without Ads | Orders coming in even when ad budget is paused | 2+ orders/week organic | Strong PMF |
| Supply Keeps Up | You can fulfill orders without stockouts | 95%+ fulfillment rate | Important |
| Contribution Margin > 40% | Selling price minus product + shipping + packaging + gateway fees | CM% > 40% before marketing | Important |
Not meeting these signals? Time to decide: pivot or kill.